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India Guar Gum Market

The splits market is trading 3–4% lower than in our previous report dated January 7. The market is currently driven by stockists and speculators. Demand remains solid across most sectors, although the U.S. oil patch continues to be weak. The U.S. dollar has continued to strengthen against the Indian Rupee, with the current exchange rate at USD 1 = INR 91.5.

  • Daily arrivals are estimated at 20,000–25,000 bags of seed.
  • Current estimates place total guar seed production at 8–11 million bags (100 kg each), with most sources reporting 9–10 million bags.
  • Carry-forward from previous years is estimated at 10 million bags, bringing total availability to 19–20 million bags (compared to 16–17 million bags last year).
  • Worldwide demand is estimated at 8–9 million bags.

Pakistan Guar Gum Market

  • Pakistan reports, “the market is currently experiencing a standoff, with buyers and sellers unable to find common ground.”  Trading volumes remain limited.
  • Total estimated crop size is 1.6 million bags, with 0.2 million bags of carry-forward, bringing total availability to 1.8 million bags.

Tariffs

President Trump is encouraged by the decline of Russian oil imports by India.  The administration is considering the removal of the 25% tariff related to India importing Russian oil.  The recent post by the President instituting a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran has not materialized.

India government officials feel the trade negotiations with the USA are in the final stages.

The Trump Administration has released several annexes excluding certain goods from Executive Order 14527 reciprocal tariffs. Guar gum appears on the exclusion list, but it is included in the annex titled “Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners” and therefore remains subject to reciprocal tariffs. We are hopeful for further clarification before January 1.

India Tariffs
• 10% on shipments after April 9
• 25% on shipments after August 7
• 50% on shipments after August 27

Pakistan Tariff
• 19% tariff effective August 7

Legal Update

The US Supreme Court has yet to rule on the legality of the Trump tariffs.  February 20th is the next scheduled opinion date.

The U.S. Supreme Court has heard oral arguments in the Administration’s appeal of a lower court ruling stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. A decision is expected in early 2026. 

If the Supreme Court rules against the President, it does not guarantee refunds to importers. Although refunds may seem logical, the process is burdened by strict regulations and deadlines.  Under normal circumstances, entries are liquidated one year from the date of entry, meaning importers have one year to file a refund claim to preserve their rights.  Several large importers have filed lawsuits in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking to suspend liquidation.

Ocean Freight

The Trump Administration has suspended new port-of-entry fees for Chinese-owned and operated vessels for one year. The original proposed fees were:

  • $50 per net ton on Chinese-owned or operated vessels (rising to $140 per net ton by 2028)
  • $18 per net ton on Chinese-built but non-Chinese-operated vessels (rising to $33 per net ton)
  • Fees are capped at five rotations, with exemptions for vessels carrying U.S. exports.

We will continue to monitor these developments and provide timely updates as the season progresses.