October 21, 2025

I have returned from visiting factories and inspecting the guar crops in India and Pakistan. As reported earlier, the crop outlook this year is positive. Monsoon rains have been both plentiful and timely, and current conditions—hot and mostly dry—are optimal for pod development.

Discussions in many business circles continue to center on the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi. My associates in India, who are largely supportive of PM Modi, feel encouraged by his refusal to yield to U.S. tariff pressures.

I’ve attached a photo of the standing guar crop in Pakistan and a close-up showing the developed pods.

Weather

  • Dry weather persists across much of northwest India and Pakistan.

India Guar Gum Market

  • Early harvest has commenced. As is typical for this stage, seeds are high in moisture and of lower quality.
  • Overall crop conditions are mostly good to excellent, with only minor damage reported in western Haryana and the Ganganagar region of Rajasthan.
  • Early estimates place total production at 10–11 million bags (100 kg each).
  • Prices remain subdued due to weak U.S. frac demand, while non-U.S. demand continues to be strong.

Pakistan Guar Gum Market

  • Crop conditions range from good to excellent. A formal yield estimate will be available in the coming weeks.
  • Early harvest will begin soon.
  • The market remains stable, with speculators expected to maintain current positions despite favorable crop reports.
  • Guar meal prices remain low, which is supporting higher guar powder prices relative to India. Meal prices would need to increase for Pakistan’s market to align with India’s, though there is currently no evidence this will occur soon.
  • Guar seed availability is limited as the season winds down.

Tariffs

India:

  • 10% on shipments past April 9
  • 25% on shipments past August 7
  • 50% on shipments past August 27

Pakistan:

  • 19% tariff effective August 7

Legal Update

  • The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.
  • The Trump administration has appealed the decision, and the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear the case in November.

Ocean Freight

  • No major updates, though new port-of-entry fees took effect October 14:
    • $50/net ton on Chinese-owned or -operated vessels, rising to $140/net ton by 2028.
    • $18/net ton on Chinese-built but non-Chinese-operated vessels, rising to $33/net ton.
  • Fees are capped at five rotations, with exemptions for vessels carrying U.S. exports.
  • The situation remains complex and continues to evolve.

We will continue to monitor these developments and provide timely updates as the season progresses. 

Best regards,

Rick Bilodeau