December 1, 2025

Weather

  • Dry conditions continue across much of northwest India and Pakistan.
  • This will be the final weather update for 2025. Early monsoon updates will resume in May 2026.

India Guar Gum Market

  • Harvesting continues as dry weather persists.
  • Current estimates place total guar seed production at 8–11 million bags (100 kg each), with most reporting 9–10 million bags.
  • Carry-forward from previous years is estimated at 10 million bags, bringing total availability to 19–20 million bags (vs. 16–17 million bags last year).
  • Worldwide demand is estimated at 8–9 million bags.
  • Prices remain subdued due to weak U.S. frac demand, although non-U.S. demand remains strong. The market advanced 4.5% today on stronger demand across all sectors.

Pakistan Guar Gum Market

  • Harvesting in the South is largely complete, while the North is currently in full harvest.
  • Total estimated crop size is 1.6 million bags, with 0.2 million bags of carry-forward, bringing total availability to 1.8 million bags.
  • Guar meal prices remain low, supporting higher guar powder prices relative to India. Meal prices would need to rise for Pakistan’s market to align with India’s, though there is no current indication of this occurring.

Tariffs

The Trump Administration has released several annexes excluding various goods from Executive Order 14527 reciprocal tariffs. Guar gum appears on the list but is included in the Annex for “Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners,” and therefore remains subject to reciprocal tariffs. We hope for further clarification before January 1.

India Tariffs

  • 10% on shipments past April 9
  • 25% on shipments past August 7
  • 50% on shipments past August 27

Pakistan Tariff

  • 19% tariff effective August 7

Legal Update

  • The U.S. Supreme Court has heard oral arguments in the Administration’s appeal of a lower-court ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. A decision is expected in early 2026.

Ocean Freight

  • No major updates, though new port-of-entry fees went into effect on October 14:
    • $50/net ton on Chinese-owned or -operated vessels (rising to $140/net ton by 2028)
    • $18/net ton on Chinese-built but non-Chinese-operated vessels (rising to $33/net ton)
  • Fees are capped at five rotations, with exemptions for vessels carrying U.S. exports.
  • The situation remains complex and continues to evolve.

We will continue to monitor these developments and provide timely updates as the season progresses.

Best regards,

 

Rick Bilodeau