I am currently in India visiting factories and inspecting the guar crop. The crop news this year is positive. Monsoon rains have been both plentiful and timely, and current conditions—hot and mostly dry—are optimal for pod development. Yesterday, however, we did see the impact of localized heavy rains, which flooded villages in the north.

Overall, the economic mood here is subdued as U.S. tariffs remain the dominant concern.  There is much talk of President Trump.

Weather

  • Light rains were reported last week in Rajasthan and Gujarat.
  • The monsoon has now fully retreated from northwest India.
  • In Pakistan, beneficial rains have ended, and the desired dry conditions are persisting across guar-growing regions.

India Guar Gum Market

  • Sowing is now complete at ~2.5 million hectares, compared to 3.2 million hectares last year.
  • The crop condition is mostly good to excellent.
  • Early estimates predict yields 20% higher than last year, more than offsetting reduced acreage.
  • Prices remain subdued due to weak demand.

Pakistan Guar Gum Market

  • Crop conditions range from good to excellent.
  • Southern regions are producing pods; northern areas remain in the flowering stage.
  • The market is stable, with speculators expected to hold current positions despite favorable reports.
  • Guar meal prices remain low, which is supporting higher guar powder prices compared to India.
  • Availability of guar seed is limited as the season concludes.

Tariffs

  • India:
    • 10% on shipments past April 9
    • 25% on shipments past August 7
    • 50% on shipments past August 27
  • Pakistan: 19% tariff effective August 7

Legal Update

  • The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.
  • The Trump administration has appealed, and the Supreme Court will hear the case in November.

Ocean Freight

  • No major updates, but new port-of-entry fees will take effect October 14:
    • $50/net ton on Chinese-owned/operated vessels, rising to $140/net ton by 2028.
    • $18/net ton on Chinese-built but non-Chinese-operated vessels, rising to $33/net ton.
  • Fees are capped at five rotations, with exemptions for vessels carrying U.S. exports.
  • The situation remains complex and evolving.

We will continue to monitor these developments and provide timely updates as the season progresses.

 

Best regards,

Rick Bilodeau