November 7, 2025

There is little new information since our last report on October 21st, 2025.

Weather

  • Dry weather persists across much of northwest India and Pakistan.
  • Light rains in southern Pakistan were reported last week.  Damage to the seeds should be minimal as they are still in the pods.

India Guar Gum Market

  • Early harvest has commenced with 55,000-60,000 bags (100kgs each) of seed arriving at the market daily.
  • Overall crop conditions are mostly good to excellent, with only minor damage reported in western Haryana and the Ganganagar region of Rajasthan.
  • We have been reporting the total guar yield to be 10–11 million bags of seed(100 kg each), however some are now reporting slightly over 11 million bags.
  • Prices remain subdued due to weak U.S. frac demand, while non-U.S. demand continues to be strong.

Pakistan Guar Gum Market

  • Crop conditions range from good to excellent. A formal yield estimate will be available in the coming weeks.
  • Early harvest has initiated in the south with arrivals to the market anticipated next week.
  • The market remains stable, with speculators expected to maintain current positions despite favorable crop reports.
  • Guar meal prices remain low, which is supporting higher guar powder prices relative to India. Meal prices would need to increase for Pakistan’s market to align with India’s, though there is currently no evidence this will occur soon.
  • Guar seed availability is limited as the season winds down.

Tariffs

India:

  • 10% on shipments past April 9
  • 25% on shipments past August 7
  • 50% on shipments past August 27

Pakistan:

  • 19% tariff effective August 7

Legal Update

  • The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.
  • The US Supreme Court heard oral arguments this week and is expected to issue a ruling within 60-90 days.  At issue is whether the International Emergency Powers Act of 1977 allows tariffs “to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States.”

Ocean Freight

  • No major updates.  Port-of-entry fees took effect October 14:
    • $50/net ton on Chinese-owned or -operated vessels, rising to $140/net ton by 2028.
    • $18/net ton on Chinese-built but non-Chinese-operated vessels, rising to $33/net ton.
  • Fees are capped at five rotations, with exemptions for vessels carrying U.S. exports.
  • The situation remains complex and continues to evolve.

We will continue to monitor these developments and provide timely updates as the season progresses.

 

Best regards

Rick Bilodeau