December 19, 2025

To make the market report easier to read, bold text indicates new information, while light gray text shows content from previous reports.

India Guar Gum Market

  • The market has advanced approximately 10% over the past two weeks, with powder manufacturers, split manufacturers, and speculators all active.
    • Daily arrivals are estimated at 50,000–60,000 bags of seed.
    • Harvesting is complete, and cold weather persists.
    • Current estimates place total guar seed production at 8–11 million bags (100 kg each), with most sources reporting 9–10 million bags.
    • Carry-forward from previous years is estimated at 10 million bags, bringing total availability to 19–20 million bags (compared to 16–17 million bags last year).
    • Worldwide demand is estimated at 8–9 million bags.

Pakistan Guar Gum Market

  • Trading activity remains subdued as the goods transport association has called for a nationwide strike, which is expected to conclude this week.
    • Harvesting is complete.
    • Total estimated crop size is 1.6 million bags, with 0.2 million bags of carry-forward, bringing total availability to 1.8 million bags.
    • Guar meal prices remain low, supporting higher guar powder prices relative to India. Meal prices would need to rise for Pakistan’s market to align with India’s; however, there is currently no indication this will occur.

Tariffs

India trade representatives are reporting progress in bilateral talks with their U.S. trade counterparts; however, no deadline has been announced.

The Trump Administration has released several annexes excluding certain goods from Executive Order 14527 reciprocal tariffs. Guar gum appears on the exclusion list, but it is included in the annex titled “Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners” and therefore remains subject to reciprocal tariffs. We are hopeful for further clarification before January 1.

India Tariffs
• 10% on shipments after April 9
• 25% on shipments after August 7
• 50% on shipments after August 27

Pakistan Tariff
• 19% tariff effective August 7

Legal Update

The U.S. Supreme Court has heard oral arguments in the Administration’s appeal of a lower-court ruling stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. A decision is expected in early 2026. 

If the Supreme Court rules against the President, it does not guarantee refunds to importers. Although refunds may seem logical, the process is burdened by strict regulations and deadlines.  Under normal circumstances, entries are liquidated one year from the date of entry, meaning importers have one year to file a refund claim to preserve their rights.  Several large importers have filed lawsuits in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking to suspend liquidation.

Ocean Freight

The Trump Administration has suspended new port-of-entry fees for Chinese-owned and operated vessels for one year. The original proposed fees were:

  • $50 per net ton on Chinese-owned or operated vessels (rising to $140 per net ton by 2028)
  • $18 per net ton on Chinese-built but non-Chinese-operated vessels (rising to $33 per net ton)
  • Fees are capped at five rotations, with exemptions for vessels carrying U.S. exports.

We will continue to monitor these developments and provide timely updates as the season progresses.

Best regards,

Rick Bilodeau